England may find themselves in the unusual position of considering a second-place finish in their World Cup group — as the knockout route for group runners-up appears far more favourable.
Thomas Tuchel’s Three Lions were drawn into a tough Group H featuring Croatia, Ghana and Panama, and although England remain favourites to finish top, doing so could create a brutal road to the final.
Topping the group would likely see England face a third-placed opponent in the last 32 — potentially Ivory Coast, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Algeria or Uzbekistan. But from the last 16 onwards, the challenge increases dramatically.
A meeting with co-hosts Mexico at the Azteca Stadium looms, bringing memories of England’s painful 1986 exit against Maradona’s Argentina. If England survive the altitude and atmosphere, a quarter-final against Brazil in Miami awaits — a team England have never beaten competitively.
Victory there would set up a semi-final against Argentina in Atlanta, before a potential final on July 19.
But finishing second in the group could provide a smoother route — and a much cooler one.
The runners-up path would see England avoid Spain, Argentina and France until the semi-finals. A last 32 clash against Colombia awaits in Toronto, the coldest east-coast venue. Win that, and Tuchel’s men likely face Spain in the air-conditioned AT&T Stadium in Dallas.
A quarter-final against Belgium would follow indoors at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, before a semi-final versus France, again under a roof in Dallas. The final at MetLife Stadium in New York would potentially pit England against Argentina.
With England desperate to end 60 years without a World Cup, Tuchel’s first major tournament in charge may require both tactical brilliance — and a bit of strategic thinking in the group stage.
