Lamine Yamal has moved ahead of Harry Kane in the latest 2026 Ballon d’Or prediction markets, marking a major shift in the race ahead of the October 26 ceremony.
Yamal’s surge comes after Spain’s World Cup triumph, with the Barcelona winger now attracting stronger market support than Kane. Recent Kalshi market data reported Yamal at around 51%, while Kane had fallen to around 40%.
The market has changed dramatically in recent weeks. Kane had previously led after his prolific season with Bayern Munich and six World Cup goals, while Yamal’s case has been boosted by Spain’s World Cup success.
With the ceremony still weeks away, the market remains fluid. Does Yamal now have the strongest case for his first Ballon d’Or?
